Buzz Around Bonds, Agricultural Anxieties, and the Magnificent Seven Take a Hit in this Week's Edition...
Take a Lap Around the Industry
The US Economy Is Slowing, Which Is Just Fine With the Fed (Bloomberg)
McDonald’s Sales Soften, Sounding Alarm for Restaurants as Diners Curb Visits (WSJ)
Google’s Anthropic AI Deal Gets Closer UK Regulator Scrutiny (Bloomberg)
Bank of Japan to Meet as Volatile Yen, Sluggish Economy Fuel Rate Hike Debate (WSJ)
Wall Street’s Bond Fund Frenzy
In 2024, Wall Street is witnessing a remarkable surge in bond fund investments, a stark contrast to the stock market's performance. With U.S.-listed fixed-income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracting nearly $150 billion by late July, this year stands out as a record-breaker for bond investments. High bond yields, coupled with expectations of future interest rate cuts, have prompted a wave of investors to shift their assets from cash and equities into bonds. Morningstar reports that taxable bond funds have been responsible for nearly 90% of net U.S. fund inflows in the first half of the year. Rick Rieder of BlackRock describes this period as "the golden age of fixed income," driven by the combination of elevated rates and falling inflation. The increased interest in both indexed and actively managed bond funds underscores a significant strategic shift as investors seek higher returns and risk reduction in their portfolios.
"We’re seeing people move out of cash and into bonds. Cash has been flipping a lot of yield, but now there’s a sense that the Fed is going to start lowering rates and that opportunity won’t be there anymore."
Rick Rieder (BlackRock)
Private Funding Pulse Check
Backed by Colruyt's family office, Korys, Stockholm-based energy startup Greenely, a smart digital energy company that helps you to reduce energy consumption and save money, has closed its Series A funding round, raising €8M.
Archera, a cloud resource automation solution that optimizes and protects cloud resources, has completed a $17M Series B funding round led by Jonathon Jacobson's family office, Highsage Ventures.
Autobahn Therapeutics has closed an oversubscribed $100M Series C funding round, led by Invus Group Family Office, to advance its pipeline of novel therapeutics for depression and other CNS disorders.
Backed by Jim Pallota's family office, Raptor Group, Language I/O, a leader in AI-driven multilingual customer support technology, has secured $5M in funding.
LPL Financial has recruited Investment Advisors Financial Group, a $1B advisory team from Osaic, to its corporate RIA, broker-dealer, and custody platform
Formed in 1979 by Thomas Musumeci and now led with his daughter Annie Silvestro and principal James Flannery, the Eatontown, N.J.-based group includes 22 advisors, eight associates, and administrative staff
The team cited a desire for more autonomy and the aspiration to enhance client experiences through integrated technology and robust services as reasons for their move to LPL
LPL has experienced strong advisor recruiting, adding several teams from Osaic recently, and reported $20B in recruited assets for Q1 2024, its biggest recruiting quarter ever and a 57% year-over-year increase (Citywire)
Annie Silvestro
VP at Investment Advisors Financial Group, LLC
Tech Stocks Face Rough Patch with Major Losses and Investor Skepticisms
Tech stocks are facing a significant downturn, with the Magnificent Seven tech giants losing $1.52 trillion in market value over the past three weeks—the largest drop on record for such a period. This decline, driven by a mix of disappointing earnings reports and waning enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, saw notable drops in Tesla and Alphabet shares. Investor sentiment shifted following a cool inflation report, sparking confidence in potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and prompting a move towards smaller companies with higher growth prospects. The S&P 500's tech sector has fallen 9.5% since the report, while the Russell 2000 has gained 8.9%. Upcoming earnings reports from other key tech players will be crucial, especially as some, like Alphabet and Tesla, have already underwhelmed investors. Despite recent selloffs, high valuations persist, making smaller companies increasingly attractive to investors.
"The Magnificent Seven is no longer the only game in town where earnings growth can occur."
Jeffrey Schulze (ClearBridge Investments)
From Zero Copper to Major Finds: KoBold Metals' Bold Approach to Mineral Exploration
KoBold Metals, a pioneering mining company, is making headlines with its unconventional approach to mineral exploration. Despite drilling a well in Zambia's Copperbelt province that yielded no copper, the company celebrated the result for the valuable information it provided. Co-founders Kurt House and Josh Goldman are leveraging artificial intelligence to transform the mining industry, combining data science with traditional geology to uncover valuable deposits. This innovative approach has led to a record $150 billion inflow into fixed-income exchange-traded funds by late July, reflecting growing investor confidence in AI-driven exploration. KoBold's methods, which integrate machine learning with exploration data, aim to identify and exploit mineral resources more efficiently. As they prepare to invest $2.3 billion into the Mingomba copper deposit, KoBold is positioned at the forefront of the green energy transition, with backing from major investors and a strategic partnership with the U.S. government.
“That’s how you show the world: ‘Here’s AI and how powerful our approach can be.’ But they certainly haven’t presented it so far.”
Denis Laviolette (EarthLabs Inc. and New Found Gold Corp)
The earnings downturn affecting agricultural trading giants is set to worsen as the food inflation that previously drove record profits diminishes. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) and Bunge Global SA are anticipated to report their weakest second quarter earnings in four years, with declining margins across most of their operations. This downturn follows a significant market shift since crop losses and the Ukraine war pushed grain prices to record highs in 2022. Now, with grain production rebounding, futures for soybeans, corn, and wheat have dropped, reducing the urgency for buyers to secure supplies and making farmers more hesitant to sell. These factors, along with softer price swings, have made trading less profitable. Additionally, increasing crushing capacity in the US has led to slower growth in demand for soy oil, impacting profits from processing soybeans into meal and oil. ADM's expected profit is forecasted to be 34% lower than last year, while Bunge’s earnings per share are projected to drop by 48%. Despite these challenges, Bunge's potential to exceed full-year profit estimates due to recent margin improvements offers a glimmer of hope.
"The premium these companies are receiving for distributing products around the world has gone down."
Thomas Palmer (Citigroup Inc)
Written by:
Sharah Roy | Research Associate
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