Due to the July 4th Holiday, the FINTRX Newsletter will return on July 14th.
Let's dive straight into the top stories from this past week...
Are there Covid-19 Pandemic Inflation Parallels to the Spanish Flu?
In a recent Bloomberg report, Macquarie Capital strategist, Vikto Shvets proposed an interesting connection between the 1918 Spanish Flu and the Covid-19 Pandemic. During the time of the Spanish Flu, a historic increase in prices led to an overreaction in fiscal and monetary policy that caused a period of deflation, resulting in a double-digit negative CPI in 1921. According to the chart below, inflation expectations are approaching a pivotal inflection point. Shvets believes the U.S. economy is either close to or passed peak cyclical inflation and can expect a pullback in pricing pressures soon.
“Over the last two years, we have been arguing that we are not revisiting the 1970s and that neither are we likely to repeat the consistently disinflationary experience of 1990s-00s. Instead, we have been suggesting that investors face a pendulum, with the macro environment violently swinging between strong inflationary spikes and equally deep disinflationary collapses. The reason for this is that unlike the previous 25 years, we now have both disinflationary and inflationary forces at work..."
France Cuts GDP Forecast, Citing Ukraine War and China
Earlier this week, the French Government lowered its Gross Domestic Product forecasts for the 2022 calendar year, cutting estimates from 4% to 2.5%. Europe's second largest economy points to pricing pressure from the Ukraine War, increased Covid-19 infection rates and supply chain restraints as a result of China's "Covid Zero" policy. This revision comes on the heels of a 2022 budget plan that includes efforts to prolong energy price caps and raise pensions, among other spending. Shrinking GDP estimates are not the only ongoing issue for the French Government, with average inflation hovering around 5%, the spending deficit passing $52B and the debt level sitting at 111.9% of GDP.
According to a recent Bisnow Boston report, David Rubenstein's Family Office, Declaration Partners is leading a housing project in Charleston, MA, with the deal valued up to $1.4B. Declaration Partners will work with the Boston Housing Authority to build nearly 2,700 residential units, with over a third marked for income-restricted apartments within the Bunker Hill Public Housing Development. The length of the project is estimated to take nearly 10 years to complete and will feature several acres of open area, 50K sq. ft of retail space and a 14K sq. ft community theatre. This is what Todd Rich, co-founder of Declaration Partners, had to say about the deal:
"We are attracted to the social benefits of preserving affordable housing while adding market rate housing in Boston, which we intend to continue to invest in over the long-term given the City’s diverse economy and strong demand fundamentals"
AiVF, a medical technology company, has raised $25M in its Series A funding round that included single-family office 166 2nd (Adam Neumann Family Office)
Paris, France-based Otium Capital has taken part in a $15.8M Series A deal with OnePilot, a customer service outsourcing platform
Caprock Family Office engaged in a Series B investment with Airspace Link, a purchasing e-commerce solution, totaling $23M
Robert Kraft's single-family office, The Kraft Group, finalizes on a $35M Series A deal with Jackpot.com, a national lottery platform
IAA and NRS Study Finds Number of RIAs and Assets Increased
According to a Financial Advisor IQ report, the Investment Advisor Association (IAA) and National Regulatory Services (NRS) have published a report that revealed the RIA industry maintained steady growth in the 2021 calendar year. Most notably, total RIA assets reached $128.4T, a 16.7% increase year-over-year. Also, firm count finished at 14,806 SEC-registered RIAs, a 6.7% increase. Other findings from the report showed Florida as the fastest growing state, with the broader Southern U.S. states holding the majority of top growth spots. Also, the fastest growing segment by AUM were firms with assets above $100B, displaying a 14.9% growth rate.
Alera Group Wealth Services has acquired Philadelphia, PA-based RIA Wharton Business Group who oversees roughly $3.4B of institutional and individual assets (CityWire USA)
Newport Beach, CA-based RIA SageView Advisory Group has agreed to acquire Summit Financial Consultants, a retirement and corporate planning specialist with $321M in assets (SFVBJ)
Wealth Enhancement Group is absorbing $574M worth of holdings from Hawkins Wealth Management, bringing their total AUM to $5.55B (FAIQ)
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